What’s the real stat on crime?

CQ Press released its controversial “City Crime Rankings: Crime in Metropolitan America” report, moving Youngstown from 9th to 14th in the nation. Their fine print acknowledges what the American Society of Criminology and FBI both protested in response: “[C]rime levels are affected by many different factors, such as population density, composition of the population (particularly the concentration of youth), climate, economic conditions, strength of local law enforcement agencies, citizen’s attitudes toward crime, cultural factors, education levels, crime reporting practices of citizens and family cohesiveness.” They go on to affirm that “Such differences help explain the different speeds but do not invalidate the comparisons.”

One view to take is: Hey, we’re getting better! And if these calculations have merit, then I suppose that is one positive take-away. Another option is just to lose another 5,000 people and drop off the list altogether. That would show ‘em!

But I wonder if there is another view. Detroit and Youngstown, for example, are both high on the list of several hundred cities ranked. But both cities, it seems to me, have relatively large land masses in contrast to their emaciated populations. If two people live on a block of a dozen houses, one of which gets vandalized, is that weighed the same as breaking-and-entering in a populous neighborhood where more people are actually affected by crime? I guess what I’m asking is: is how we feel about crime based on what happens around us and affects us directly? Or is it a vague sense of unease created by headlines and national reports?

How can we create an index that reflects the reality of the current crime scene and that allows us to have a baseline to measure progress? Maybe we already have such a thing and I’m not aware? If not, what kinds of measurements or figures would be valuable and appropriate?

It’s easier to hide behind hopes that the report is not accurate. However, we know there’s a problem we can’t ignore. Let’s put it in perspective we can use.

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